FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|England vs. Serbia: Why Three Lions will (or won't) win Euro 2024 to end trophy drought

England famously hasn't won a major men's tournament since the 1966 World Cup.

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centerrecent results under coach Gareth Southgate suggest that England could be on the precipice of a championship breakthrough, however.

After reaching the semifinal of the 2018 World Cup, England played in the final of UEFA Euro 2020 and reached the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup, only to lose a tough match to eventual runner-up France.

Can this finally be the year England raise the trophy of a major international tournament?

Southgate brings a loaded England squad to Germany, and the team enters Euro 2024 as betting favorites to win the tournament.

Why England will win UEFA Euro 2024

England should easily win its group (which also includes Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia). In the knockout rounds, England — if it wins its group — would get a third-place group finisher in the Round of 16 and a group runner-up in the quarterfinals (possibly old nemesis Italy) before a possible semifinal showdown against France, the 2018 World Cup winner and squad that knocked England out of the 2022 World Cup. If England gets through France, it could face host Germany, Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal or Spain in the final.

During the entire tournament, England might only face two teams that on paper are their equal in terms of talent. The Three Lions are bringing a potent assemblage of footballers to Germany. Team captain Harry Kane is one of the most dangerous goal-scorers in the world, and is among the favorites to win the tournament's Golden Boot. Kane is among a handful of over-30 players bringing a wealth of international experience for England to the 2024 Euros, a group that includes goalkeeper Jordan Pickford, and defenders Kyle Walker and John Stones.

There's also promising youth in the team. 20-year-old midfielder Jude Bellingham is emerging as one of the game's top talents, and is coming off winning the UEFA Champions League with Real Madrid. The 19-year-old Kobbie Mainoo could join Bellingham in England's starting midfield and is a player to follow in the coming years.

Why England won't win Euro 2024

Let's be real: England is basically the Dallas Cowboys of international soccer. England enters an international tournament — whether it's the Euros or World Cup — among the favorites to win, only to ultimately fall short. This mirrors the preseason baggage that the perennially overrated Cowboys carry into every NFL campaign. While the Cowboys haven't won a title since the 1995 season, England's drought goes back nearly 30 years longer (though, to be fair, its competitions aren't held annually).

It's this history of choking and constantly coming short of lifting the trophy that will continue to haunt England in these Euros. England's most recent Euro failure was its most disheartening. Hosting the UEFA Euro 2020 final at venerable Wembley Stadium, it felt like a slam dunk that England would emerge winners. Instead, England was defeated by pesky Italy in a final that came down to penalty kicks. This is the same Italy team that has failed to qualify for the last two World Cups.

What epic collapse awaits England at the 2024 Euros? Only time will tell.